Indus Water Treaty-1960 in Doldrums

While the “power crisis” has caused the economic slowdown, India withheld millions of cubic feet of water upstream on the river Chenab by storing it in dozen of newly constructed dams so as to generate 8,696 MW hydro-electricity for the growing needs of its burgeoning population. This was a flagrant breach of Indus Water Basin Treaty of 1960, as the construction by India of Dulhasti, Dugar, Gondhala, Reoli/Dugli, Sach-Khas, Tandi, Teling Tinget, Sawalkot, Seli, Raoli and Kirthal hydropower projects has tremendously decreased the flow of Chenab river. India has commenced work on other two controversial dams on River Chenab named Uri-1 and Uri-2.

Indian Prime Minister while inaugurating a 450-MW hydroelectric Baglihar Dam said: “It is a matter of satisfaction that the reconstruction programme comprising 67 projects is well under way with 19 projects completed, one of which is Baglihar Dam that I inaugurated today”. With such like projects to materialize on rivers flowing into Pakistan, the country will be increasingly confronted with impending water shortages. The talks on sharing of river waters between India and Pakistan suffered a severe blow due to Mumbai terror attacks of 26/11 that killed 166 people. Pakistan wants to resume unconditional dialogue process in resolving the bilateral problems, including the core Kashmir issue and also deal effectively with terrorism. Water issue is an ideal starting point for re-initiating “Composite dialogues” because the two countries face similar challenges so vital for their fast track agro-based economies.

Unfortunately, the Indo-Pakistan subcontinent is slipping into this new kind of war over the distribution of water as a resource. This is because the sources of all the five tributaries of the Indus - Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej remained in India. The dispute between India and Pakistan over water resources is rooted in history. Just after the partition of the subcontinent in 1948, Delhi stopped the flow of water from the canals on its side, denying water to some 8 per cent of the cultivated area. However, India agreed with Pakistan, which allowed for the continuation of water supplies for irrigation purposes until the Pakistani side managed to develop alternative water resources. As a result of World Banks constant efforts from 1952 to 1960, the Indus Water Treaty-1960 was signed, designed to regulate water use in the region. According to Indus Water Treaty of 1960, India has got the exclusive control over the waters of the Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej, whereas Pakistan controls the waters of the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab. As the demand for water has increased by leaps and bounds, India is seeking maximum control over the sources of the supply of water of 3 western rivers, and thereby increasing the tension with Pakistan that share the claims over water.

The alarming situation again emerged in 1992, when India announced plans for the controversial water reservoir, the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River - allotted to Pakistan by the 1960 treaty. The Chenab is fed with glacial melt-waters from the Himalayas and for centuries has provided crucial irrigational system for the region. While the accord gave India full rights to use water from the eastern rivers by building dams and barrages, it allowed limited irrigation use of water from the western river earmarked for Pakistan. The Treaty barred India from interfering "with the water of these rivers except for domestic use and non-consumptive use, limited agriculture use and limited utilization for generation of hydro-electric power." The treaty also barred India from storing any water or constructing any storage works on the western rivers that would result in a reduced flow of water to Pakistan. According to Indus Water Treaty-1960, Pakistani position on the Chenab water issue has been that a minimum of 55,000 cusecs of water should flow into Pakistan at the Marala head-works near Sialkot in peak season; however, a flow of only 22,000 cusecs was recorded last year, adversely affecting the crops. However, during January 2010, the water flows in Chenab declined by 40 per cent to about 6,000 cusecs from a 10-year average of about 10,000 cusecs, mainly because of construction of hydropower projects upstream by India, reduction in rainfall and diversion of river waters. Most of the hydrologists are of the view that sharp water decline in flow of the river at Head-Marala in Pakistan is due to unauthorised direct water withdrawal by farmers in Jammu with the support of Indian authorities who had especially subsidized electricity for direct pumping in Jammu and Himachal Pradesh and diversion of Ravi-Tavi link canal. India used to irrigate 642,000 acres from western rivers by Ranbir and Pratap canals when the treaty became effective, but it had built five more canals over the past 10 years to increase the irrigated area. These include Kashmir canal system, high canal system in Jammu, Ravi-Tavi link irrigation system, Igo-phey canal in Leh and Kurbathang canal in Kargil. Pakistan has asked India to provide details of its agricultural acreage, crops and other projects to enable it to make plans in advance. Pakistan believes Baglihar dam on Chenab & Wullar barrage on Jhelum can be used as: (1) a geo-strategic weapon, (2) potential to disrupt the triple canal project of Pakistan, (3) badly affecting the Neelum-Jehlum hydro-power project, (4) setback to agriculture in Azad Kashmir and wheat production in Punjab, (5) drying of 5.6 million acres of lands of Punjab province, (6) depriving Pakistan of water up to 7000 cusecs per day, (7) neglecting the seismic activity in the area (Murree-Jhelum faulty lines).

In order to resolve the challenges judiciously, India must reconsider its decision of suspending the composite dialogue between India and Pakistan. India’s delaying tactics to restart the stalled bilateral negotiations on one pretext or the other are simply alienating the two nations further and are also not in the interest of India itself. Any major upstream alteration in a river system, should be negotiated, not imposed as in case of Indian water overtures on rivers Chenab and Jhelum. The Governments of India and Pakistan should look beyond national borders to basin-wide cooperation. A similar situation arose between India and Pakistan on the Salal Dam issue, but the matter was finally resolved through bilateral negotiations and conclusion of Salal Dam Treaty in 1978. As the Salal Dam issue was resolved through talks, given the will, the Baghliar Dam issue can also be settled. Pakistan had asked India to proportionately reduce their water use on its side when river water declined abnormally. Pakistan maintains that India, under the treaty, can store water but it cannot divert it to any other side. Thus, any diversion would violate the provisions of the IWT-1960. And once the issues related to water are discussed and settled, it can assist in easing tension between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. It is high time that both India & Pakistan should forego their vested interests for the overall prosperity of the region. The international community can play an instrumental role in coaxing India to resume dialogue process between India and Pakistan – so critical for the stability of the South Asia.

India’s Water Terrorism against Pakistan

Since the 9/11 tragedy, international community has been taking war against terrorism seriously, while there are also other forms of bloodless wars, being waged in the world and the same are like terrorism. In these terms, India has been practising water terrorism against Pakistan.

In a bid to solace Islamabad’s concerns, while speaking in diplomatic language, Indus Water Commissioner of India G. Ranganathan who recently visited Pakistan revealed, “India had been affected as much as Pakistan due to water shortage in the Indus”. He denied, saying: “Indian decision to build dams on rivers has led to water shortage in Pakistan”, while rejecting Islamabad’s concerns regarding water-theft by New Delhi including violation of the Indus Water Treaty, assuring his counterpart, Indus Water Commissioner of Pakistan, Syed Jamaat Ali Shah that all issues, relating to water between Pakistan and India would be resolved through dialogue.

In international politics of today, these are deeds, not words which matter, so ground realties are quite different as to what G. Ranganathan indicated in his statements.

Apart from other permanent issues including the thorny dispute of Kashmir which has always been used by India to malign and pressurise Pakistan, water of rivers has become a matter of life and death for every Pakistani as New Delhi has continuously been employing it as a tool of terrorism to blackmail Pakistan.

In the recent past, Indian decision to construct two hydro-electric projects on River Neelam which is called Krishanganga in Indian dialect is a new violation of the Indus Basin Water Treaty of 1960. The World Bank, itself, is the mediator and signatory for the treaty. After the partition, owing to war-like situation, New Delhi deliberately stopped the flow of Pakistan’s rivers which originate from the Indian-held Kashmir. Even at that time, Indian rulers had used water as a tool of terrorism against Pakistan. However, due to Indian illogical stand, Islamabad sought the help of international arbitration. The Indus Basin Treaty allocates waters of three western rivers of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab to Pakistan, while India has rights over eastern rivers of Ravi, Sutlej and Beas.

Since the settlement of the dispute, India has always violated the treaty intermittently to create economic crisis in Pakistan. In 1984 a controversy arose between the two neighbouring states after India began construction of the Wullar Barrage on river Jhelum in the occupied Kashmir in violation of the Indus Basin Water Treaty.

In the past, the issue of Wullar Barrage has also been discussed in various rounds of talks, being held under composite dialogue process between the two rivals, but Indian intransigence continues.

In the mid 1990s India started another violation by constructing the Baglihar dam on the Chenab river. In 2005, Pakistan had again sought the World Bank’s help to stop construction of the Baglihar dam. Although WB allowed India to go ahead with the project after a few modifications, yet it did not permit the interruption of the agreed quota of water flow to Pakistan.

In 2008, India suddenly reduced water flow of the Chenab river to give a greater setback to our autumnal crops. Islamabad on September 17, 2008 threatened to seek the World Bank’s intervention on the plea that New Delhi had not responded to its repeated complaints on the issue appropriately. Pakistan’s Commissioner to the treaty, Syed Jamaat Ali Shah had also remarked that the shortage of water in the Chenab river, occurred due to filling up the Baglihar dam. Despite repeated pleas from Islamabad, India did nothing to address the problem.

Nevertheless, apart from intermittent violations of the Indus Water Treaty by construction of the Krishanganga project over Neelam River, New Delhi, in fact, has been using water as a tool to pressurise Islamabad with a view to getting leverage in the composite dialogue especially regarding Indian-held Kashmir where a new phase of protests has started. In this respect, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, while talking in connection with the revival of Pak-India dialogue, said on February 8 this year that Pakistan’s case on Kashmir and water was based on truth, and the government would fight it with full strength.

Indian diplomacy of water terrorism could also be judged from a latest development. Reports suggest that India has secretly offered technical assistance to the Afghan government in order to construct a dam over Kabul River which is a main water contributor to Indus River.

By applying such a shrewd diplomacy of using water as another instrument of terrorism against Pakistan, New Delhi intends to fulfil a number of nefarious designs. India wants to keep her control on Kashmir which is located in the Indus River basin area, and which contributes to the flow of all the major rivers, entering Pakistan. It is determined to bring about political, economic and social problems of grave nature in Pakistan.

As regards the Indian clandestine aims, in this respect, a report, published in the “New Scientist” in 2005 pointed out a number of issues in relation to Pakistan by writing: “Violation of the Indus Basin Treaty could lead to widespread famine, and further inflame the ongoing conflict over Kashmir. Pakistan relies on the Indus river and its tributaries for almost half of its irrigation supplies, and to generate up to half of its electricity. Pakistan also fears that India would use various dams as a coercive tool by causing floods in Pakistan through sudden release of dam waters.”

In this context, China Daily News Group wrote in 2005: “Another added complication is that in building a dam upstream of Pakistan, India will possess the ability to flood or starve Pakistan at will. This ability was witnessed in July of 2004 when India, without warning, released water into the Chenab river, flooding large portions of Pakistan. The history of conflict between these two nations makes it possible for New Delhi to use nature as a real weapon against Islamabad.”

According to an estimate, unlike India, Pakistan is highly dependent on agriculture, which in turn is dependent on water. Of the 79.6 million hectares of land that makeup Pakistan, 20 million are available for agriculture. Of those 20 million hectares, 16 million are dependent on irrigation. So, almost 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture is dependent on irrigation.

It is notable that many of Pakistan’s industries are agro-based such as the textiles industry. Besides, 80% of Pakistan’s food needs are fulfilled domestically. Thus an interruption of water supply would have broad-ranging effects. For example, when the country suffered a drought from 1998 to 2001, there were violent riots in Karachi.

It is of particular attention that half of Pakistan’s energy comes from hydroelectricity, and at present, our country has been facing a severe crisis of loadshedding which is the result of power-shortage in the country. During the last summer, people in a number of cities like Karachi, Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad etc. lodged violent protests against the loadshedding, culminating into loss of property and life.

While Pakistan has already been facing multiple challenges of grave nature coupled with a continued phenomenon of terrorism like suicide attacks, bomblasts etc., committed by the militants who enter our country from Afghanistan where Indian secret intelligence agency, RAW has established training centres for anti-Pakistan activities—New Delhi also uses water as a tool by increasing its scarcity, making life too often miserable for Pakistanis with the unlitmate aim of creating poverty which could produce more terrorism in turn. And is likely to deepen differences among Pakistan’s provinces over various issues which are directly or indirectly related to water.

So, still by employing water as an instrument of blackmailing, Indians continue to intensify political unrest, economic instability and social strife in Pakistan.

Surprisingly, recently, India started resumption of secretary level talks with Pakistan paying a greater attention on terrorism instead of equally addressing all the issues of the composite dialogue, therefore, Islamabad must talk about Indian water terrorism as a major focus of agenda in the ongoing and future dialogue.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations.